President Donald Trump has all of his proverbial eggs in one “big, beautiful” basket. Passage of the Republican-backed tax and budget bill is pivotal in advancing his agenda, but polling from multiple organizations shows the package may not have public sentiment behind it.
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The numbers
Polling done by Fox News released on Wednesday, June 18, shows voters were mostly familiar with the budget bill and its provisions, and most don’t like it. Conducted from June 13 through June 16, the polling found 59% opposed what Trump calls his “One Big Beautiful Bill.” Nearly half, a plurality of respondents, said the bill would do more harm to their family than good. Twenty-six percent thought it would make no difference, and 23% said its passage would help their family.
Fox said the opinions of the legislation fell largely on partisan lines, with 73% of Republicans favoring it and 89% of Democrats in opposition. Notably, 73% of Independents opposed the bill.
The Fox poll spoke to 1,003 registered voters and carries a 3% margin of error.
The Washington Post conducted a poll with Ipsos that was focused on “tax, spending and Medicaid policies.” This led to only 34% saying they’d “heard more” rather than “heard less” on the subject when surveyed.
When asked whether they “support or oppose the budget bill changing tax, spending and Medicaid policies,” 23% said they supported it, compared to 42% opposed. The remaining 34% had no opinion.
When Ipsos asked the 1,167 adults from June 6 to June 10 about specific provisions, the results largely reflected self-interest. Nearly half supported extending the 2017 federal income tax cuts for people of all income levels, while 26% opposed doing so, and a quarter of respondents had no opinion.
Support for extending the tax cuts for people with moderate incomes was highest, at 71%, and decreased to 29% as the income qualifiers increased for those earning more than $400,000 per year. Extending tax breaks for corporations had similar support. Similarly, support for increasing the child tax credit by $500 saw 72% support.
Key provisions in Trump’s budget bill received support or opposition similar to that seen in previous polling. Respondents favored a Medicaid work requirement for able-bodied adults by a 52-33 margin, with 15% having no opinion.
Eliminating taxes on tips remains a popular idea, with nearly two-thirds in support. Meanwhile, about 36% of people were in favor of spending approximately $50 billion to complete a southern border wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, while 24% were in favor of spending $45 billion on immigration detention centers. Reducing federal food assistance was unpopular, with two-thirds of the public opposing it.
Ipsos told respondents that the budget bill is projected to increase the national debt by around $3 trillion over the next decade. Those polled sided with budget hawks like Kentucky Republicans Rep. Thomas Massie and Sen. Rand Paul, with 63% saying that figure is unacceptable. The same percentage said 8 million people losing Medicaid due to a provision in the bill was a non-starter.
A Quinnipiac University poll conducted from June 5 to June 9 asked 1,265 self-identified registered voters about their blanket support or opposition to Trump’s budget bill. Republicans offered support for the bill by a 67-10 margin, with 22% having no opinion. Democrats largely opposed the bill, with 89% in opposition.
Uncertain future
Despite Republican majorities in both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate, Trump’s proposed budget bill has seen several Republicans in both chambers unwilling to support the measure. Changes to Medicaid funding provisions appear to have four Republican senators opposed. Blue state Republicans have demanded that the state and local tax deduction cap instituted in his 2017 tax bill be quadrupled before it would earn their support. Budget hawks like Paul and Massie have walked away from the negotiating table due to the increase in the deficit.
Democrats remain unified in their opposition to the bill.
Some measures could be stripped in the Senate under the “Byrd rule,” which empowers Senate parliamentarians to exclude non-budgetary items from a bill that’s to be passed using the reconciliation process. If provisions deemed “fatal” under the rule aren’t removed, Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” would fall prey to a Democratic filibuster.